The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled today, in an advisory opinion, that Kosovo’s 2008 unilateral declaration of independence did not violate international law.  It will be interesting to watch the impact from this decision.  In the short term the obvious hope is that the decision will not incite violence in Serbia or within Kosovo.   At least one news source announced that the ICJ told the Serbian government yesterday what the decision would be so that they would have a day to get prepared (see www.balkaninsight.com).  In the long term the ruling will likely lead to more countries recognizing Kosovo as a country and perhaps to UN membership.  

However, the ruling has clear implications around the world in other places with separatist movements.  One of the main arguments against officially recognizing Kosovo’s independence has been that to do so would encourage already existing ethnic conflicts and discourage separatist movements from finding ways to live in peace within their existing countries.  This argument reminds me of the famous words of Rodney King during the LA riots in the early 1990’s: “Can’t we all just get along?”  But, I think the unfortunate reality is that some conflicts run so deep that it may be impossible for some groups to “just get along” and live in peace within the same state.  When I was in Kosovo in June many people commented to me that they thought the conflicts between ethnic Serbs and ethnic Albanians within the country had calmed since the declaration of independence because being a sovereign nation brought a sense of security to the Albanian community and that changed how they were responding.  In looking at some of the separatist movements around the world it is clearly much more complicated for them to live in peace as a minority when the majority country is not a strong democracy that respects human rights.   And, it is countries that fit into this category that have some of the most lively and active separatists movements that could become very active following this ICJ opinion.  It will be also interesting to watch how some of the separatist movements within strong democracies (such as in Belgium, Spain and my new home state of Texas) respond to this ruling.    

The New York Times has a longer report about the ICJ ruling available here: http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2010/07/22/world/europe/international-us-serbia-kosovo.html?_r=1&hp